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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.