Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.